Review article

Bayesian approach in determining the joint and several liability share of the construction participants in case of construction untimely completion

UDC: 

658.5:624.05

DOI: 

10.23968/1999-5571-2019-16-2-79-84

Pages: 

79-84

Annotation: 

The delay in commissioning the facilities under construction always leads to a negative socio-economic result. This circumstance predetermines the development of various methods of calculation aimed at establishing the share of joint and several liability of the construction participants in case of construction untimely completion. One of the universal methods in solving this kind of problem is the use of Bayesian approach. Adaptation of Bayesian approach to the determination of the share of joint and several liability for the participants of the construction process for the construction delay centers around replacing a priori probability of delay occurrence in implementation of certain project activities with the corresponding values of absolute delay. The analyzed approach can be used both at the stage of construction calendar planning and at the stage of operational management of construction production to ensure the necessary level of its organizational and technological reliability. At the final stage, defined as the completion of construction, Bayesian approach can be the basis for calculating the final shares of the joint and several liability of construction participants in the total delay in construction completion.

Authors: 

Bolotin S. A. Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering

Dadar A-K. Kh. Saint Petersburg State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering

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